Why McCain's VP pick is pretty brilliant.

[raybear]

First off, he didn't do it for us pinko confirmed-Obama voters (i.e. most everyone on my friends page and facebook).

And, I'm not really sure he did it to steal Hillary voters. He might get a few, but I think that's just a possible beneficial side effect.

Here's what I see happening with the GOP.

McCain doesn't give a crap about the conservative evangelical population. And they know it. And him picking someone to appease them is kind of a waste. Because I think that voting bloc turns out for votes, but I don't think they're turning out that much money proportionally speaking. (That would be corporations and lobbying.) Don't get me wrong, I know they give, but I think the numbers who will STOP giving even though their Romney/Huckabee isn't on the ticket is pretty low. The ones that DO turn out the money, they are always going to vote for the GOP anyway. AND, it might a brilliant strategic move for the GOP to sort of shun them a bit, because they will throw MORE money at the GOP to try and win them over to vote their way. In essence, after 8 years of having them in the club, now they are trying to make the conservative evangelicals be to the GOP what the gays/progressives are to the Democrats. Are they going to lose the fringe votes? Sure. Are those fringe people the ones who are really, really rich and powerful? No. So fck 'em.

Obama picked Biden, an old school Democrat who can shoot off his mouth like McCain and has working class white dude clout and experience to help him out. He rounded out his weakness. McCain can now follow suit without fear of criticism, picking someone whose fresh eyes and young and articulate and represents "change". I mean, by virtue of being a woman, that is radical enough. Never mind the facts of her positions. People see it as balancing out -- well, she can't be THAT conservative, she's a woman! I mean, she's not Ann Coulter or Phyllis Schafly, those are anomalies. This is more like Condoleeza Rice territory. But anyway, McCain gets the best of both worlds -- a young woman, who pro-life, pro-death penalty. pro-oil, pro-money, anti-corruption as long as the corruption is defined as money taking away from their corporate schemes. Just like McCain tries to be the best of both worlds -- I'm a free-thinking independent maverick and votes with Bush 90% of the time. People like the best of both worlds, its a sense of balance. Hence Obama picking Biden.

The other thing I see happening is that the GOP realizes, oh isht, Obama's message is working. People want change. They want fresh faces and rejuvenation. So we can't pick Ridge or Lieberman. (Well, there are other reasons too for not picking Lieberman, but whatever.) This is one part about McCain's pick that made me happy (they are realizing that people ARE responding to Obama, so it must be true) and upset (oh fck, he just made a brilliant powerplay because the mtherfcker is actually paying attention).

She is a self-proclaimed "hockey mom". She's married and got all these kids. She's kinda hot (in that sexy sitcom mom way that is very popular). She speaks well. She makes McCain seem more appealing when standing next to him. They aren't trying to just dip into Hillary voters, they are trying to take from the Oprah/The View/Today show pool of middle-class, middle-america white ladies. They are looking to keep their confirmed voters where they are, so they aren't in danger of being swayed by the change message of Obama (see, McCain has change too!) and they are looking to take all the wafflers, the white guys and white ladies who maybe don't love Bush, they see that things are messed up, but they aren't quite sure they can vote for a black man, but then they feel guilty about NOT wanting to vote for a black man, but hey, wait, I can still be open-minded, I'm voting for a woman!

Don't get me wrong, I don't think McCain's decision is going to create some sort of landslide shift over to his side. *touches wood furiously* But I think its a mistake to underestimate what he's doing.

Comments

[moander.livejournal.com]

That's a pretty astute analysis, I'd say., especially "hey, wait, I can still be open-minded, I'm voting for a woman! "

However, I don't think it's going to do much to shore up votes for McCain. I think she's a bit too much of a pro-oil nutter. I hope I'm right.

EDIT: spelling

[raybear.livejournal.com]

I hope you're right too. But I also think it was a good defensive choice in helping to keep his votes in place, specifically moderate republicans -- he recognized he was danger of people getting swayed by Obama's message, so he chose a VP that would help them stay put, rather than a type of conservative that will push them away.

[sebastian6.livejournal.com]

I agree with you for the most part but there is a downside that you aren't mentioning.

Palin is younger and less experienced than even Obama, which undercuts McCain's attacks on that subject. Plus, I believe, even the mention of "Alaska" brings to mind lots of controversy- bridges to nowhere, indictments, etc. And some conservatives (especially men) might be turned off by considering a young woman for the White House.

I think this decision has a very good chance of backfiring on him big-time.

[raybear.livejournal.com]

McCain can also just dismiss that Palin isn't running for president -- she's running to assist him. Also, in her speech today, she already brought up the Bridge to Nowhere -- and shot it down, saying she refused the money from congress, and was somehow instrumental in making it not happen. It was smart for her to frame herself immediately as some sort of "New Alaska", one that made her unpopular among the insides elite, but popular among the people for her clearing out of corruption. She is framing herself as a populist republican, much like Obama is framing himself a populist democrat.

Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of ways she can be questioned and challenged, they just have to be done very carefully and smartly, and so far, this has been a very careful and smart campaign by Obama. My point is more that democrats seem to be consistently underestimating GOP, saying, oh that will never work, but actually, its working just fine for them. And yeah, there's certainly a chance it won't work, but I personally believe the chance of it not-working is actually smaller than the chance would be if he'd picked Romney or Ridge.

[sebastian6.livejournal.com]

I don't think McCain can slip out with "she isn't running for President" because, of course, she will be Prez if he dies (more likely than most).

She's under investigation as we speak and while it's a separate issue from the recent indictment, I think it paints a portrait of being part of a questionable statehouse.

I think you give her too much credit. But I could be wrong.

[sharkysmachine.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I agree with this too. We're not talking Libby Dole or Ann Richards or Condi Rice. These are accomplished, powerful women who have experience and backgrounds on par with Hillary. This trashy soccer mom will not appeal to the kind of women who were hot to trot for Hillary (I was kind of one of them) because she's basically a loud mouth PTA lady who's a plot point away from being in a Whoopi Goldberg movie.

I found it kind of offensive that her name is being tossed around in the company of Geraldine, Shirley Chisholm and Hillary because she is nowhere in their league in terms of accomplishments, depth of experience and intellect.

I think it's really disturbing that the Republicans think an uneducated white woman should cancel out an Ivy League Black dude.

Chancey Gardenier much.

[raybear.livejournal.com]

I am not in anyway singing the praises of her accomplishments and intelligence -- I'm more talking about appearances, perceptions, how it will play out in the politics game. Because you're right, she's nowhere near Hillary et al, but I'm not talking about how history will assess them. This is politics of elections I'm talking about, and ridiculous reasons for why voters make choices and how campaigns market themselves. It is completely disturbing that the Republicans think she is on par with Obama and its even more disturbing that a significant number of the American population will buy it.

[sharkysmachine.livejournal.com]

Personally I think the republicans are punishing McCain for straying from the party. They have all but abandoned him in order to ensure that Obama is a one term president. Except McCain doesn't realize it's 1976 all over again!

Hell, I can't even remember which republican ran against Jimmy Carter!

[raybear.livejournal.com]

Its not so much that I mean to give her credit as a capable person and leader -- I'm more talking about the perception of her and how the campaign will use and abuse it.

And I would also add that investigations and indictments don't really mean as much anymore to the general public or the media that reports news. Unless its a sex scandal.

[unscrambled.livejournal.com]

"She's under investigation as we speak and while it's a separate issue from the recent indictment, I think it paints a portrait of being part of a questionable statehouse."

This is the thing that shocked me about this pick. There's such a laserlike focus on making sure the vp pick is "uncontroversial" and they picked someone who is currently under investigation? (Enormously popular, but still)--the blatant (and hopefully unsuccessful) pandering of it is astonishing.

I also thought it was interesting in that she is WAY pro-life, which is not really the suburban-soccer-mom stereotype position. Maybe they think people will ignore it because they don't understand the Supreme Court.

Also, am I the only one thinking that the only thing that might stop McCain from making a play for Palin's pants is that she's brunette?

[jessicaeve.livejournal.com]

Exactly.

Totally.

Yes, agreed. Particularly with that last sentence.

[sharkysmachine.livejournal.com]

She's sitcom hot? Maybe for Strangers with Candy! She's ridiculous. Poorly educated, ridiculous policies and isn't even qualified to be a high school PE teacher, much less the gov of Alaska.

She's got some trooper gate scandal and is like the Peggy Hill of politics mixed with a little Brit Spears!

[raybear.livejournal.com]

When I turned on the tv, I thought "what's Megan Mullally doing standing next to John McCain?"

[sinsense.livejournal.com]

This is the only post on my friendslist about the VP nod that did not make me break out into hives. Thank you for that.

They aren't trying to just dip into Hillary voters, they are trying to take from the Oprah/The View/Today show pool of middle-class, middle-america white ladies.
I really like this point, it rang true with me (and the demographic of Republicans I'm most familiar with). And I, too, saw this as evidence that this is going to be a more tangled and hard-fought battle than most Obama supporters want to admit.

[gem-stellar.livejournal.com]

I'm curious that no one has mentioned that in the slim chance that a) McCain gets elected and b) he dies of old age while in office, the person then responsible to run the United States of American is someone who is a competitor for the Miss Alaska beauty pageant who's two biggest stances are "god and guns".

...this scares me because if anything McCain is drawing the spot light back onto his campaign which has up until now had no content, instead being campaign built entirely on attacking Obama... my question now is, does she give his side something to bite into (content wise)?

[crafting-change.livejournal.com]

totally agree with your assessment, but all I want to do now is make a joke about 'touching wood furiously'

:p